Budgeting for the completion of DOG distills down to a simple formula…
Tasks / Team = Duration
Each task describes a specific change to some shot, a shot defined as the IN point to OUT point of any edit. A shot may have several tasks associated with it, but each task refers to only one shot. A series of tasks may be related by continuity, but each task always refers to just one shot.
Tasks have a duration and a level of complexity. Though different contractors work at different speeds, the average amount of time required to complete 1 second of change can eventually be calculated. Originally I guessed this value to be .5 hours for 1 second of change.
I’ve completed 8 seconds of roto on shot 42, which took about 15 hours. This works out to be about about 2 hours of work for 1 second of change, 4 times greater than my initial guess. However, scene 42 has the highest complexity value – 3. The predicted time at .5 hours / second for shot 42 was nearly 12 hours, so that’s not to far off. Using shot 42 for calibration, the average hours / second is .64. So my initial guess was workable.
Currently I have no active contractors! Finishing the Essentials on my own would take about 200 days. I can afford to bring on 3 more contractors at $13/hour (Trace rates). Assuming that the three are at least as fast as I am, the current calculations predict that Essentials could be complete in under 3 months.
I’m counting on at least a 50% acceleration in this prediction based on 1) interns eventually contributing, 2) a tighter edit, 3) my own increased productivity, 4) new contractors being significantly faster than I currently am, 5) a miracle.
I’ll think about linking my measured productivity more tightly to the tasks remaining and how I can continuously update the predicted completion as contractors come aboard.